Monday, November 2, 2009
The Mubaraks
I tend to agree with many analysts that Egypt is a powder keg waiting to blow. Hosni Mubarak, since he took power 28 years ago, has maintained a declared "state of emergency" in the country since radical Islamists assassinated Anwar Sadat in 1980. It's essentially an ongoing struggle between some more extreme Islamists and the Egyptian government, which has been going on since the mid-1950's when the Muslim Brotherhood began to feel betrayed by Nasser's secularism after they helped him overthrow King Farouk. With the state of emergency Mubarak suppresses the more conservative and Islamist elements who are also vying for a share in the Egyptian parliament, dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party.
According to rumor and outright appearances (don't let the jet-black dye job fool you), the 81 year old Mubarak may be on his way out and most are assuming his son Gamal will seize power soon after (since he's reportedly being groomed by the US for such). I predict one of three outcomes here after Hosni's death or exit from the presidency: 1) Gamal takes power with little incident and makes marginal attempts at reform, though mainly economic since he is a former investment banker and probably doesn't want to agitate social conservatives 2) Gamal takes power, massive protests break out. They are then brutally suppressed by security forces, thereby creating more Islamist and Brotherhood resentment, which will rise to surface again at a later date. 3) Massive protests, and Cairo especially, absolutely freaks out and then I don't know what happens.
Either way, I would love to see a movement like hizb al-wasat (the Center Party) re-emerge and take over. I think they were outlawed or forced out of elections by Mubarak, but I like how they account for the Islamic nature they want to see in the state but with an emphasis on democracy and women's rights. For now, the younger Mubarak is skirting the question.
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